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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Huachipato and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 25, as Huachipato and Deportes Iquique drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 2.18 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.86 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Huachipato fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 68% | Draw 19% | Deportes Iquique 13%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 56%, Deportes Iquique 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.20 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights