Huachipato 0-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Huachipato at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio CAP plays host to Huachipato versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 7 October 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Huachipato have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato at Estadio CAP this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Huachipato are significantly better at Estadio CAP than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Huachipato 1W, Coquimbo Unido 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Huachipato winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 50% versus Coquimbo Unido 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 42% | Coquimbo Unido 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.98 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.071 / defence 1.307 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.611 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.119. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Huachipato's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Huachipato games / 26 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 63% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Coquimbo Unido 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Huachipato (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Huachipato as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 70% | Coquimbo Unido 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 63% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Huachipato 1.98 / Coquimbo Unido 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.071 / def 1.307 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.611 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Coquimbo Unido xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Huachipato 0 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 63% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Huachipato 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in?
Huachipato (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.07) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.61x) against Huachipato's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 58/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.74
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.87
0.89
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
44.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Huachipato and 0.89 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 9W 5D 12L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 5W 5D 16L from 26 games, 0.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Huachipato are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 0W 3D 10L from 13 away games — 0.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Huachipato come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.04 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 5D 16L in their last 26 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Huachipato's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.54 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Huachipato
2
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 69%, Coquimbo Unido 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Huachipato) and 54% (Coquimbo Unido). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Huachipato's games and 54% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Huachipato's matches and 54% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Huachipato 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.98 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.07 / defence 1.31 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.61 / defence 1.33, drawn from 58/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 63% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 16%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 42%, Coquimbo Unido 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Huachipato arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.