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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 1-3 at Estadio Huachipato, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.90 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 49% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 53%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights