Huachipato 1-0 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Huachipato at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Huachipato host Colo Colo at Estadio CAP in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Huachipato's home record at Estadio CAP: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Colo Colo — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Colo Colo have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Huachipato have won 0, Colo Colo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Colo Colo in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 47% versus Colo Colo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Huachipato 34% | Colo Colo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.29 xG and Colo Colo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.032 / defence 0.893 | Colo Colo attack 1.028 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.229. Data: 35 Huachipato games / 35 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 37% | Draw 34% | Colo Colo 29%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Colo Colo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Huachipato at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Colo Colo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Huachipato offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 50% | Colo Colo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 37% | Draw 34% | Colo Colo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Huachipato 1.29 / Colo Colo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.032 / def 0.893 | Colo Colo attack 1.028 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Colo Colo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Colo Colo kick off?
Huachipato vs Colo Colo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Huachipato 1 - 0 Colo Colo.
Where is Huachipato vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Colo Colo part of?
Huachipato vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 37% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Huachipato and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
Record (1 meetings): Huachipato 0W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Huachipato and Colo Colo in?
Huachipato (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.03) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.93
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Colo Colo xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.13 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Huachipato come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 13D 11L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (19W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Huachipato — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Huachipato's home form reads 5W 7D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 2.06 points per game from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Huachipato are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 19W 5D 8L in their last 32 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.38 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Huachipato's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Huachipato
1
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 2, Colo Colo have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Colo Colo 2-0 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Huachipato see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 38%, Colo Colo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Huachipato) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Colo Colo in 38%; Huachipato have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Huachipato's recent matches and 50% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Huachipato's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Colo Colo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Colo Colo 1-0 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.29 xG and Colo Colo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Colo Colo attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 37% | Draw 34% | Colo Colo 29%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 34%, Colo Colo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Colo Colo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Huachipato winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Huachipato (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.