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Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Huachipato 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 2.01 xG and Cobresal 0.91 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Cobresal attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 61% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 15%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 50%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.52 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights