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Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.67 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.82 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.63 / defence 0.93 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.85 / defence 0.66, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights