Everton de Vina 0-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Everton de Vina take on Universidad de Chile.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Universidad de Chile are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Everton de Vina 4W, Universidad de Chile 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Universidad de Chile winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Universidad de Chile 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Universidad de Chile 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.67 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.634 / defence 0.932 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.848 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.036. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Universidad de Chile's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Everton de Vina games / 39 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Universidad de Chile 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Everton de Vina's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Universidad de Chile 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 27% | xG Everton de Vina 0.67 / Universidad de Chile 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.634 / def 0.932 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.848 / def 0.662 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Universidad de Chile xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 27% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 2 | Universidad de Chile 3W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.63) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.85x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.68
37%
2.72
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.49
0.82
Universidad de Chile xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.67
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 18.5 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.82 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 12L across 60 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Universidad de Chile by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 9W 12D 9L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 16W 5D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.85 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Universidad de Chile's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Universidad de Chile 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Universidad de Chile in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 47% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.67 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.82 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.63 / defence 0.93 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.85 / defence 0.66, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.