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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Everton de Vina take on Universidad de Chile.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 22:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Everton de Vina have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Universidad de Chile (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On a straight form reading, Universidad de Chile are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Everton de Vina 4W, Universidad de Chile 3W, 2D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Universidad de Chile winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Universidad de Chile 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Universidad de Chile 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.67 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.634 / defence 0.932 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.848 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.036. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Universidad de Chile's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Everton de Vina games / 39 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Universidad de Chile 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Everton de Vina's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Universidad de Chile 30% BTTS from recent games.

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