Everton de Vina 2-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Primera División appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Primera División this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.50 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 40% versus Union Espanola 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 20% | Union Espanola 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.71 xG and Union Espanola 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.671 / defence 1.232 | Union Espanola attack 1.054 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 0.929. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Everton de Vina games / 10 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 21% | Draw 32% | Union Espanola 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Union Espanola 2.13. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 20% | Union Espanola 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 21% | Draw 32% | Union Espanola 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Everton de Vina 0.71 / Union Espanola 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.671 / def 1.232 | Union Espanola attack 1.054 / def 1.104 | league avg home 0.955 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Union Espanola xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 21% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (1.05x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
21%
4.85
32%
3.08
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.91
1.21
Union Espanola xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
6%
16.21
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 17.8 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.21 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 5D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.50 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Everton de Vina's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 70%.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union Espanola away?
Union Espanola's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.00 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 20%, Union Espanola 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Everton de Vina) and 60% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 60% of games; Union Espanola in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 60% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 60% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union Espanola 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.71 xG and Union Espanola 1.21 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Union Espanola attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 21% | Draw 32% | Union Espanola 47%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 20%, Union Espanola 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Espanola's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.40 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.