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Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 26, as Everton de Vina and Union Espanola drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.49 xG and Union Espanola 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Union Espanola attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 25%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 52%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union Espanola's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.24 PPG, Union Espanola 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights