Everton de Vina 0-3 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host U. Catolica at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
U. Catolica's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 1, U. Catolica 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
U. Catolica trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 45% versus U. Catolica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 32% | U. Catolica 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.51 xG and U. Catolica 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.087 / defence 0.971 | U. Catolica attack 1.113 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.063. Data: 30 Everton de Vina games / 30 U. Catolica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | U. Catolica 3.45. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form U. Catolica (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | U. Catolica 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Everton de Vina 1.51 / U. Catolica 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.087 / def 0.971 | U. Catolica attack 1.113 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.15
U. Catolica xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kick off?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Everton de Vina 0 - 3 U. Catolica.
Where is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica part of?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton de Vina and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
Record (3 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 1 | U. Catolica 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (1.09) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.92
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
U. Catolica xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.15 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 24D 19L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
U. Catolica's form line: 35W 8D 19L from 62 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton de Vina.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (11W 12D 8L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 13W 2D 16L from 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.71 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 35W 8D 19L in their last 62 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or U. Catolica away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.45 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 39%, U. Catolica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Everton de Vina) and 68% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 52% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 68% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 0-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.51 xG and U. Catolica 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. U. Catolica outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against U. Catolica attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 29%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 32%, U. Catolica 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
U. Catolica's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.