Everton de Vina 0-3 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host U. Catolica at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
U. Catolica's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
U. Catolica trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 39% versus U. Catolica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 29% | U. Catolica 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.09 xG and U. Catolica 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.841 / defence 0.962 | U. Catolica attack 1.138 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.238. U. Catolica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Everton de Vina games / 31 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 42%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | U. Catolica 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | U. Catolica 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Everton de Vina 1.09 / U. Catolica 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.841 / def 0.962 | U. Catolica attack 1.138 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.35
U. Catolica xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kick off?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Everton de Vina 0 - 3 U. Catolica.
Where is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica part of?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 29% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton de Vina and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.84) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
29%
3.45
29%
3.43
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
U. Catolica xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.35 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 9D 12L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
U. Catolica's form line: 21W 2D 8L from 31 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton de Vina.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 7W 0D 8L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 2.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; U. Catolica in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 21W 2D 8L in their last 31 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or U. Catolica away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 33%, U. Catolica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Everton de Vina) and 60% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 53% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 60% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 0-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 34, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.09 xG and U. Catolica 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. U. Catolica outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against U. Catolica attack 1.14 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 29% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 42%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 29%, U. Catolica 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
U. Catolica's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.