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Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.25 xG and Palestino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.76 / defence 0.85 against Palestino attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 30%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights