Everton de Vina 0-0 O'Higgins – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host O'Higgins at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 31 May 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, O'Higgins stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, O'Higgins have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour O'Higgins — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Everton de Vina, 1 for O'Higgins and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with O'Higgins winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
O'Higgins in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 38% versus O'Higgins 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 31% | O'Higgins 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and O'Higgins 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.740 / defence 0.869 | O'Higgins attack 0.690 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.007. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Everton de Vina games / 46 O'Higgins games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 34% | O'Higgins 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | O'Higgins 5.26. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — O'Higgins's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form O'Higgins (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | O'Higgins 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 May 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 34% | O'Higgins 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Everton de Vina 1.14 / O'Higgins 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.740 / def 0.869 | O'Higgins attack 0.690 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.60
O'Higgins xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins kick off?
Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 31 May 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 O'Higgins.
Where is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins part of?
Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 48% chance of winning, O'Higgins a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Everton de Vina and O'Higgins will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 0 | O'Higgins 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.74x the league average against O'Higgins's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, O'Higgins's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
48%
2.09
34%
2.97
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.74
0.60
O'Higgins xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.60 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 9D 13L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
O'Higgins's form line: 9W 11D 12L from 32 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.22 PPG, O'Higgins on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, O'Higgins have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; O'Higgins are on 0.97 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; O'Higgins in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
O'Higgins
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while O'Higgins have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or O'Higgins away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.38 PPG; O'Higgins away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or O'Higgins been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, O'Higgins in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Everton de Vina's record when hosting O'Higgins specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
O'Higgins
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, O'Higgins have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and O'Higgins last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 31%, O'Higgins 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Everton de Vina) and 44% (O'Higgins).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; O'Higgins in 31%; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 31% of games; O'Higgins in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / O'Higgins away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play O'Higgins?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 44% of O'Higgins's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 44% of O'Higgins's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and O'Higgins tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, O'Higgins in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 15, as Everton de Vina and O'Higgins drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and O'Higgins 0.60 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.74 / defence 0.87 against O'Higgins attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 34% | O'Higgins 19%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, O'Higgins 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
O'Higgins's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG, O'Higgins 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.