Everton de Vina 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nublense have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.60 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 45% versus Nublense 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 32% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.26 xG and Nublense 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.070 / defence 0.944 | Nublense attack 0.847 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.271. Nublense's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Everton de Vina games / 36 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 31% | Nublense 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Nublense 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | Nublense 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 31% | Nublense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton de Vina 1.26 / Nublense 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.070 / def 0.944 | Nublense attack 0.847 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Nublense xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 41% chance of winning, Nublense a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Nublense 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Nublense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.85x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.21
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.28
1.02
Nublense xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.02 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 19W 24D 19L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 16L across 62 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.55 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 11W 12D 8L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 9W 12D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Nublense have gone 25W 21D 16L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.45 PPG; Nublense away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Nublense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 39%, Nublense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Everton de Vina) and 45% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 32% of games; Nublense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 58% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 45% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Nublense tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Nublense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.26 xG and Nublense 1.02 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Nublense attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 31% | Nublense 28%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 32%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nublense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG, Nublense 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.