Everton de Vina 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nublense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.40 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Nublense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 43% versus Nublense 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 30% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.26 xG and Nublense 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.949 / defence 0.754 | Nublense attack 0.835 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.132. Everton de Vina's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Everton de Vina games / 56 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 29% | Nublense 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Nublense 4.76. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | Nublense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 29% | Nublense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Everton de Vina 1.26 / Nublense 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.949 / def 0.754 | Nublense attack 0.835 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Nublense xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 49% chance of winning, Nublense a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 1 | Nublense 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Nublense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.83x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.39
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.97
0.71
Nublense xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.71 for Nublense, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 17W 21D 18L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 16L across 56 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.54 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 10W 10D 8L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 8W 10D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.52 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 17W 21D 18L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Nublense have gone 23W 17D 16L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.43 PPG; Nublense away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nublense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 36%, Nublense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Everton de Vina) and 43% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 36% of games; Nublense in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 54% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 43% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Nublense tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Nublense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 25, as Everton de Vina and Nublense drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.26 xG and Nublense 0.71 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against Nublense attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 29% | Nublense 21%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 30%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.29 PPG, Nublense 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.