Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 20 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 4D 2L across 9 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.44 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nublense have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.44 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.60 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 44% versus Nublense 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 22% | Nublense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.00 xG and Nublense 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.791 / defence 1.380 | Nublense attack 0.911 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 0.926. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nublense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Everton de Vina games / 10 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 31% | Draw 30% | Nublense 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Nublense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 25% | Nublense 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 31% | Draw 30% | Nublense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Everton de Vina 1.00 / Nublense 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.791 / def 1.380 | Nublense attack 0.911 / def 1.368 | league avg home 0.923 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Nublense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Nublense xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 31% chance of winning, Nublense a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Nublense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.91x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
31%
3.26
30%
3.29
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.16
1.16
Nublense xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.16 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 3L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.78 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Nublense's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nublense's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Nublense have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.00 PPG; Nublense away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nublense in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nublense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 25%, Nublense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina have failed to score in 50% of games; Nublense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 50% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Nublense finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.00 xG and Nublense 1.16 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Nublense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.79 / defence 1.38 against Nublense attack 0.91 / defence 1.37, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 31% | Draw 30% | Nublense 39%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 22%, Nublense 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nublense's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.44 PPG, Nublense 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.