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Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina and Nublense finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.79 xG and Nublense 1.15 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.67 / defence 1.03 against Nublense attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 25% | Draw 31% | Nublense 44%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Nublense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights