Everton de Vina 1-0 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Huachipato travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Huachipato have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.00 (Huachipato). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Huachipato in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 29% versus Huachipato 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 21% | Huachipato 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Huachipato 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.795 / defence 0.789 | Huachipato attack 0.842 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.284. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Huachipato bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Everton de Vina's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Everton de Vina games / 24 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Huachipato 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 20% | Huachipato 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton de Vina 1.21 / Huachipato 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.795 / def 0.789 | Huachipato attack 0.842 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Huachipato xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Huachipato.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato part of?
Everton de Vina vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 44% chance of winning, Huachipato a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton de Vina and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Huachipato (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.06
0.85
Huachipato xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.85 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 7D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (4W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Huachipato — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton de Vina's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 4W 11D 9L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Huachipato away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.58 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Huachipato been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Huachipato in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
1
Draws
6
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Huachipato have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-3 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Huachipato?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 25%, Huachipato 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Huachipato in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Huachipato?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 67% of Huachipato's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Huachipato tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Huachipato 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Huachipato 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Huachipato 0.85 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against Huachipato attack 0.84 / defence 1.45, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 25%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 21%, Huachipato 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Huachipato's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.