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Dominant Huachipato run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton de Vina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huachipato beat Everton de Vina 0-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Huachipato outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Huachipato attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Huachipato 31%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Huachipato win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Huachipato 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Huachipato 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights