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Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat Everton de Vina 0-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.48 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.14 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 45% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 29%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Deportes Iquique 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights