Everton de Vina 0-4 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Everton de Vina take on D. La Serena.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.84 xG and D. La Serena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.823 / defence 1.237 | D. La Serena attack 0.776 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 0.884 / away 1.008. Data: 5 Everton de Vina games / 5 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 41% | D. La Serena 33%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.85 | Draw 2.44 | D. La Serena 3.03. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 41% | D. La Serena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Everton de Vina 0.84 / D. La Serena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.823 / def 1.237 | D. La Serena attack 0.776 / def 1.149 | league avg home 0.884 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.97
D. La Serena xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena kick off?
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Everton de Vina 0 - 4 D. La Serena.
Where is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena part of?
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 26% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 33% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Everton de Vina and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.82) and D. La Serena's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — D. La Serena's attack (0.78x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.84
41%
2.46
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.80
0.97
D. La Serena xG
3.84
26%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.97 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
D. La Serena
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 0-4 on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against D. La Serena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
3
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
From 7 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, D. La Serena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant D. La Serena run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Everton de Vina 0-4 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.84 xG and D. La Serena 0.97 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. D. La Serena outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against D. La Serena attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 41% | D. La Serena 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual D. La Serena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.