🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over D. La Serena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat D. La Serena 3-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.54 xG and D. La Serena 0.87 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against D. La Serena attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 53% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 21%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, D. La Serena 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

D. La Serena's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 0.95 PPG, D. La Serena 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. D. La Serena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights