Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Curico Unido travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Curico Unido have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Curico Unido have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Curico Unido are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Curico Unido and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Curico Unido trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 38% versus Curico Unido 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 31% | Curico Unido 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.22 xG and Curico Unido 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.948 / defence 0.894 | Curico Unido attack 1.113 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.181. Data: 36 Everton de Vina games / 36 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 34%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Curico Unido 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Curico Unido (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 40% | Curico Unido 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Everton de Vina 1.22 / Curico Unido 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.948 / def 0.894 | Curico Unido attack 1.113 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Curico Unido xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Curico Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 36% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton de Vina and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Curico Unido 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.95x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
36%
2.82
31%
3.23
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Curico Unido xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.17 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 11L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.22 PPG, Curico Unido on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Curico Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Curico Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.38 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
0
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Curico Unido have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Curico Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 31%, Curico Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Everton de Vina) and 38% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 31% of games; Curico Unido in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Curico Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 50% of Curico Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 38% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Curico Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Curico Unido finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.22 xG and Curico Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Curico Unido attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 36% | Draw 31% | Curico Unido 34%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, Curico Unido 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Curico Unido's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG, Curico Unido 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.