Everton de Vina 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 2 as Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 February 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.39 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.863 / defence 0.971 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.218. Data: 33 Everton de Vina games / 1 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 3.70. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.39 / Coquimbo Unido 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.863 / def 0.971 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Coquimbo Unido xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Everton de Vina home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.86) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.65
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.00 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.39 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.