Everton de Vina 1-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Everton de Vina, 1.90 for Colo Colo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 2 for Colo Colo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 56% versus Colo Colo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Colo Colo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and Colo Colo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.084 / defence 0.983 | Colo Colo attack 0.833 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.127. Data: 49 Everton de Vina games / 48 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 40% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Colo Colo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 50% | Colo Colo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 40% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton de Vina 1.14 / Colo Colo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.084 / def 0.983 | Colo Colo attack 0.833 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Colo Colo xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo part of?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 40% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton de Vina and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Record (4 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Colo Colo 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (0.83x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.32
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.06
0.92
Colo Colo xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.92 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 18W 19D 11L from 48 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 7L across 48 games — 1.94 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 10W 8D 5L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colo Colo's away record stands at 9W 9D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.65 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 19D 11L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 26W 15D 7L in their last 48 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Colo Colo away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.65 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 0, Colo Colo have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Colo Colo 2-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 48%, Colo Colo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 39% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Colo Colo in 35%; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 61% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 39% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.14 xG and Colo Colo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Colo Colo outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Colo Colo attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 40% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 29%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Colo Colo 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.