Everton de Vina 0-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Everton de Vina take on Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.00 xG and Colo Colo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / defence 1.120 | Colo Colo attack 0.967 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.095. Data: 3 Everton de Vina games / 3 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Colo Colo 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Colo Colo 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Colo Colo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.00 / Colo Colo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / def 1.120 | Colo Colo attack 0.967 / def 1.131 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Colo Colo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Everton de Vina 0 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo part of?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 27% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (0.97x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.72
37%
2.70
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Colo Colo xG
3.72
27%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.19 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 0, Colo Colo have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Colo Colo 2-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 0-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.00 xG and Colo Colo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Colo Colo outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Colo Colo attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 37% | Colo Colo 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.