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Everton de Vina and Colo Colo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 19, as Everton de Vina and Colo Colo drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Colo Colo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Colo Colo attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Colo Colo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights