Everton de Vina 3-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 October 2022 at 00:15 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Cobresal have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Everton de Vina. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cobresal (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 45% versus Cobresal 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 31% | Cobresal 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.56 xG and Cobresal 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.969 / defence 0.806 | Cobresal attack 1.001 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.133. Data: 58 Everton de Vina games / 58 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Cobresal 4.55. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 50% | Cobresal 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 00:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton de Vina 1.56 / Cobresal 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.969 / def 0.806 | Cobresal attack 1.001 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cobresal xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kicked off at 00:15 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Everton de Vina 3 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 52% chance of winning, Cobresal a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Cobresal 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.00x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
52%
1.90
25%
3.93
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Cobresal xG
1.90
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.92 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 18W 22D 18L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal's form line: 22W 12D 24L from 58 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.34 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 7W 5D 16L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.31 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 22D 18L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 12D 24L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobresal away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.43 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cobresal in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
6
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 36%, Cobresal 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Everton de Vina) and 57% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 57% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 57% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobresal tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Cobresal share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Cobresal finished level at 3-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.56 xG and Cobresal 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, Cobresal 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG, Cobresal 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.