Everton de Vina 3-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Everton de Vina take on Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cobresal have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 0W 3D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.20 for Cobresal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 33% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 17% | Cobresal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.95 xG and Cobresal 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.779 / defence 1.045 | Cobresal attack 0.773 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.051. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Everton de Vina games / 12 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 33% | Draw 41% | Cobresal 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Cobresal 3.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 17% | Cobresal 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Aug 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 33% | Draw 41% | Cobresal 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Everton de Vina 0.95 / Cobresal 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.779 / def 1.045 | Cobresal attack 0.773 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cobresal xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Everton de Vina 3 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 33% chance of winning, Cobresal a 27% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.77x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
41%
2.47
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.80
0.85
Cobresal xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.47
41%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.85 for Cobresal, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 5D 2L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Everton de Vina are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobresal away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.33 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cobresal in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
6
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 17%, Cobresal 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Everton de Vina and 50% for Cobresal.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cobresal in 33%; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 50% of games; Cobresal in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 67% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobresal tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Cobresal 3-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.95 xG and Cobresal 0.85 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Cobresal attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 33% | Draw 41% | Cobresal 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 17%, Cobresal 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cobresal's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.