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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Cobresal 3-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Cobresal 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.61 / defence 0.83 against Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights