Everton de Vina 1-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Sausalito this season.
A. Italiano's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
A. Italiano away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Everton de Vina's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of A. Italiano's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Everton de Vina 4W, A. Italiano 3W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with A. Italiano winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
A. Italiano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 46% versus A. Italiano 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 46% | A. Italiano 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and A. Italiano 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.925 / defence 1.155 | A. Italiano attack 0.799 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.252. Data: 48 Everton de Vina games / 48 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 26% | A. Italiano 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | A. Italiano 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 40% | A. Italiano 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 26% | A. Italiano 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton de Vina 1.45 / A. Italiano 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.925 / def 1.155 | A. Italiano attack 0.799 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.16
A. Italiano xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano kick off?
Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano part of?
Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 44% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton de Vina and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 2 | A. Italiano 3W.
What form are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. A. Italiano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.93) and A. Italiano's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.80x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
A. Italiano xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.16 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 12W 13D 23L from 48 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
A. Italiano, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 18L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours A. Italiano by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 5W 10D 8L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
A. Italiano's away record stands at 7W 3D 13L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of A. Italiano's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.52 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
A. Italiano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or A. Italiano away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.09 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, A. Italiano have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 48%, A. Italiano 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Everton de Vina) and 61% (A. Italiano).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 44% of games; A. Italiano in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play A. Italiano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 52% of A. Italiano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 61% of A. Italiano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and A. Italiano tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, A. Italiano in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and A. Italiano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 19, as Everton de Vina and A. Italiano drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and A. Italiano 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against A. Italiano attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 26% | A. Italiano 30%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 46%, A. Italiano 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
A. Italiano's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, A. Italiano arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.