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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton de Vina and A. Italiano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina and A. Italiano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.28 xG and A. Italiano 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against A. Italiano attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 32%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, A. Italiano 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights