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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 0.95 xG and Union La Calera 0.79 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 0.73, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 29%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights