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Prediction vindicated as Deportes Limache edge out Union Espanola 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Union Espanola 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Union Espanola attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 22%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 56%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 0.81 PPG, Union Espanola 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights