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U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Deportes Limache.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Deportes Limache 0-2 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 2.22 xG and U. Catolica 0.94 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Limache fell 2.2 short of their projected output. U. Catolica outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.35 / defence 0.71 against U. Catolica attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 66% | Draw 19% | U. Catolica 15%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a U. Catolica win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, U. Catolica 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

U. Catolica's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights