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Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.29 xG and U. Catolica 1.29 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against U. Catolica attack 1.17 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 37% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 37%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 54%, U. Catolica 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

U. Catolica's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. U. Catolica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights