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Prediction vindicated as Deportes Limache edge out O'Higgins 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat O'Higgins 2-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.66 xG and O'Higgins 1.11 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against O'Higgins attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 24% | O'Higgins 25%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, O'Higgins 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

O'Higgins's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, O'Higgins arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights