🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Deportes Limache and O'Higgins share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache and O'Higgins finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.60 xG and O'Higgins 0.98 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. O'Higgins outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against O'Higgins attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 52% | Draw 25% | O'Higgins 23%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, O'Higgins 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

O'Higgins's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, O'Higgins arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights