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Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Huachipato 3-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.57 xG and Huachipato 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Huachipato landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against Huachipato attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 49% | Draw 25% | Huachipato 25%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Huachipato 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Huachipato's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG, Huachipato 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights