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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Huachipato defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huachipato beat Deportes Limache 2-3 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.00 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Huachipato outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Huachipato attack 0.73 / defence 0.84, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 35% | Draw 31% | Huachipato 34%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Huachipato win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights