🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Deportes Limache edge out D. La Serena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat D. La Serena 1-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.51 xG and D. La Serena 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. D. La Serena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against D. La Serena attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 51% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 23%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 52%, D. La Serena 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

D. La Serena's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 0.97 PPG, D. La Serena 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights