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Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Limache 2-3 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.70 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.17 / defence 0.81 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 53% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 23%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights