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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Deportes Limache cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Colo Colo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Colo Colo 3-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.34 xG and Colo Colo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Colo Colo attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 48% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 24%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Colo Colo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights