🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Deportes Iquique 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Deportes Iquique 2-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.25 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.89 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 32% | Draw 28% | Universidad de Chile 40%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 73%, Universidad de Chile 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights