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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.12 xG and U. Catolica 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against U. Catolica attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 36% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 35%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 74%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.21 PPG, U. Catolica 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights