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Shock result as O'Higgins defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Deportes Iquique 2-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.52 xG and O'Higgins 1.47 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. O'Higgins outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against O'Higgins attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 39% | Draw 24% | O'Higgins 37%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual O'Higgins win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 74%, O'Higgins 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

O'Higgins's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.17 PPG, O'Higgins 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights