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Nublense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Deportes Iquique 0-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.26 xG and Nublense 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Nublense attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 37% | Draw 27% | Nublense 36%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nublense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 74%, Nublense 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Nublense's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.14 PPG, Nublense 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights