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Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Deportes Iquique 1-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.91 xG and Everton de Vina 1.38 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against Everton de Vina attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 50% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 28%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights