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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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D. La Serena and Universidad de Concepcion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena and Universidad de Concepcion finished level at 1-1 at La Portada, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.57 xG and Universidad de Concepcion 0.85 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.74 / defence 1.29, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 54% | Draw 25% | Universidad de Concepcion 20%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights