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Poisson model favours U. Catolica (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as D. La Serena face U. Catolica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees U. Catolica travel to La Portada to take on D. La Serena. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
D. La Serena — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
D. La Serena at La Portada this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for D. La Serena, 4 for U. Catolica and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
D. La Serena trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
U. Catolica trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 70% versus U. Catolica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 57% | U. Catolica 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.06 xG and U. Catolica 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.881 / defence 1.149 | U. Catolica attack 1.054 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.040. Data: 30 D. La Serena games / 30 U. Catolica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 31% | Draw 28% | U. Catolica 41%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | U. Catolica 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: D. La Serena 60% | U. Catolica 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: La Portada • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): D. La Serena 2W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 4W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: D. La Serena 8 – 12 U. Catolica • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: D. La Serena 33% / Draw 0% / U. Catolica 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — U. Catolica favoured. H2H win rate 67%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals: H2H average 3.33/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.31 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L • U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W • D. La Serena home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • U. Catolica away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 4 • Form edge: U. Catolica lead by 1.70 PPG (2.50 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (D. La Serena): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (U. Catolica): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.31 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on U. Catolica — U. Catolica at 41% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 31% | Draw 28% | U. Catolica 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG D. La Serena 1.06 / U. Catolica 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.881 / def 1.149 | U. Catolica attack 1.054 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.26
U. Catolica xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs U. Catolica kick off?
D. La Serena vs U. Catolica kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at La Portada.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs U. Catolica?
D. La Serena 2 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is D. La Serena vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at La Portada.
What competition is D. La Serena vs U. Catolica part of?
D. La Serena vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 31% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both D. La Serena and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and U. Catolica?
• Record (6 meetings): D. La Serena 2W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 4W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: D. La Serena 8 – 12 U. Catolica • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: D. La Serena 33% / Draw 0% / U. Catolica 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — U. Catolica favoured. H2H win rate 67%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals: H2H average 3.33/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.31 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
What form are D. La Serena and U. Catolica in?
• D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L • U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W • D. La Serena home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • U. Catolica away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 4 • Form edge: U. Catolica lead by 1.70 PPG (2.50 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (D. La Serena): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (U. Catolica): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.31 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on U. Catolica — U. Catolica at 41% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about D. La Serena vs U. Catolica?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture